Loan Highlights 3Q23: Loan volumes remain significantly lower than historical averages
Capital markets loan activity continued to struggle in the third quarter of 2023, as issuers in the Americas and Europe held off from tapping markets

European CLOs win out against US deals
Last month, our analysis explored the performance of US CLOs that were previously reset. We found that they delivered higher distributions than deals which weren’t reset, with the exception of the 2017 and 2018 vintages (Creditflux September 2023 — Do resets help CLOs perform better?). This article expands that analysis to the European market, and compares the performance of US BSL and EU CLO equity tranches.

Testing the water: issuers gauge sterling HY bond demand following 10-year record low
Pure Gym, a UK-based fitness club, has become the second company in a week to test demand for sterling-denominated senior secured notes in the European high-yield market

Snooze - you’re extended! Can lenders in European SFAs sleep-walk into extended tranches? - Xtract Special Report
This Xtract Research special report asks whether lenders under European SFAs could find themselves re-designated into a later-maturing facility or tranche than originally documented without their explicit consent

Refinancing continues to dominate headline figures in latest European leveraged highlights
Debtwire has released its July 2023 European Leveraged Highlights, containing key trends in the leveraged loan and high-yield bond markets

1H23 European direct lender rankings
The volume of European direct lending facilities issued fell to just €8.5 billion in 2Q23. The same quarter last year was the largest on record at €51.3 billion, representing over an 80% drop year on year.

Retail maintains primacy as most distressed sector in Europe with €31 billion of debt restructuring commenced in 1H23
Newly commenced restructurings tracked by Debtwire in Europe during 1H 2023 show 114 mainly large-cap restructurings, compared to 89 tracked in 1H 2022, a 28% increase year-on-year

Last frontier: Common currency conquers non-Eurozone countries to dominate lev loan market
Our latest DebtDynamics EMEA research shows that the share of the European leveraged loan syndication market denominated in the EU common currency jumped from 80% in 2015 to levels closer to 95% since 2019  

New IACPM survey points to a global recession
Respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey overwhelmingly expect global economies to fall into recession either later this year or sometime in 2024.

High yield bond index offers opportunities for credit pickers
The global high yield bond market has become a skewed barbell offering benefits to credit pickers, according to a new research note from global asset manager Ninety One. 

Question your assumptions
Valuing CLO paper is complicated, and loan prepayments are one of the trickiest parts. When pricing a new issue CLO, the market generally assumes that 15-20% of loans will prepay their principal annually. This prepayment rate is important because it essentially determines the pace at which a CLO’s rated debt is paid off after the reinvestment period, when the CLO pays down its own principal.

34% of CLOs rated by Fitch out of reinvestment
34% of the CLOs rated by Fitch Ratings have left their reinvestment periods including six deals that exited in May, the rating agency said in a note to clients on Thursday

More than 45% of Euro CLOs to be out of RP by Q1 2024, Fitch says
More than 45% of Fitch-rated reinvesting European CLOs are anticipated to be out of their reinvestment period by the end of Q1 2024, up from around a third as of April, which could lead to rating pressure for mezzanine tranches in those deals

Euro CLO exposure to financial sector 'limited', say Fitch
European CLO exposure to the financial sector is 'limited' and CLO ratings will not be impacted by UBS's acquisition of Credit Suisse, according to new data from Fitch Ratings

Loan trading within European CLOs drops to 0.6%: BofA
European CLO manager trading activity declined sharply this year amid less leveraged loan primary supply and declining secondary liquidity, according to Bank of America research

Five issuers account for 22% of Euro CLO triple Cs: BofA
22% of triple C-rated debt in European CLOs originates from just five issuers, according to analysis from Bank of America research this morning

Largarde snowballs puncture complacent calm and shocks spreads wider
Credit markets are ending the week on a big push wider, after European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde delivered the surprise that had been missing from other central bank messaging

Major fund withdrawals undermine credit momentum
Credit funds are extending their run of inflows into the end of the year, but investment grade momentum took a dent last week due to investors in one big fund pulling their money

European CLO equity outperforms single Bs amid high return dispersion: Bank of America
European CLO returns have been negative across the capital structure this year, a research paper from Bank of America has found. Losses have been softened however due to an increasing three-month Euribor rate, high carry relative to corporates and relatively stable equity returns.

Capex and real yields will split winners from losers in '23: BofA
Companies able to undertake capital expenditure will be the winners in 2023, while those historically most sensitive to rising real yields should inspire caution, say Bank of America strategists

Rebuke for optimism as US jobs send market bulls running for cover
Investors’ determination to maintain an optimistic outlook on US Federal Reserve policy hit a point of reckoning on Friday, with hot US jobs numbers adding weight to committee members’ message that there is still a lot more work for them to do

Euro CLOs have better 2023 entry point than US in $140 billion issuance year: Barclays
CLO performance and issuance may have to wait until the second half of next year for improvement, say Barclays credit strategists in a 2023 outlook piece. But Europe could fare better than the US given starting levels in a year the market faces some challenging regulatory hurdles

Euro CLO new issuance could reach €22 billion in 2023, says BofA
European CLO new issuance will reach €22 billion in 2023, strategists at Bank of America expect, while refinancing / reset volume should reach €3 billion under a ‘base case’ scenario

Powell outlook brings risk buyers out in droves, but reality check looks soon to follow
Comments by US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday on the pace of future rate hikes have prompted a sharp rally across global financial markets, including credit. But dissenting voices have already begun to point out the enthusiasm is likely overdone

Credit Suisse tests investor nerves as market preps for Fed-focused week
Credit Suisse, which has been subjected to another week of intense scrutiny, is heading into the weekend with its credit spreads extending wider, after warning on losses and undertaking a capital hike