Expanding investor base and ABL will propel private credit growth says BlackRock
The private credit asset class will continue to grow in 2025 as the underlying investor base diversifies and the definition of private credit expands to include asset-backed finance held by private lenders

Banks predict record-breaking year ahead
Consensus figures generated from outlook reports by five banks suggest 2025 will be another strong year for CLO issuance. But last year, their estimates were well below the actual numbers

Slow and steady wins the day
It’s often thought CLO managers add value to their deals via high volume trading strategies. The data shows this can be true — but on average, top performing CLOs are less actively traded

BNP Paribas sees credit upside in 2025, even amidst Trump-led unpredictability
The bank also sees CLO equity outperforming in 2025 benefiting from resilient loan fundamentals, strong cash flows, and the upside potential from reset activity

Moody’s forecasts robust economic performance underpinning continued strength in CLOs
The ratings agency’s outlook for 2025 is upbeat about the prospects for both the US and European CLO markets, helped by declining leveraged loan defaults

Deutsche Bank forecasts record new issuance for European CLOs in 2025
Deutsche Bank Research is forecasting a record EUR 50bn in gross new issue CLO supply for the European CLO market in 2025, with net issuance projected to increase to EUR 25bn

Triple C assets and capital preservation
In the US and Europe, better performing CLOs tend to hold fewer triple C assets. But even so, a third of top performing CLOs in the US have more than 6% of their assets in the triple C bucket.

Static deals stand out in Europe
European CLO equity in redeemed deals has delivered excellent returns. But managers might be surprised to discover that static deals are the region’s stars

European CLOs see jump in triple-C exposure, says Fitch
European CLOs have seen their exposure to assets rated triple-C or below increase sharply, reaching an average of 5.0%

European distress remains muted but trouble is brewing in Industrials
European Industrials rose to be the second most distressed sector in August, according to a new report based on the Weil European Distress Index

JP Morgan revises CLO spread target upwards as recession fears mount
Off the back of renewed recession fears JP Morgan has revised its end-of-year AAA CLO spread target upwards to 150bps for both the US and Europe

European managers struggle to add alpha
Before the COVID pandemic, European CLOs comfortably outperformed the Morningstar European Euro-Denominated Loan Index. Since then, alpha has declined for many managers

Barclays sees record European CLOs for 2024
Barclays expects a record year for CLO deals in Europe, raising its issuance forecast to EUR 40-45bn in a report released this week

Do defaults predict equity returns?
At first glance, recently redeemed European CLOs show some sort of correlation between final IRR and the number of defaults in their portfolio. But what other factors affect performance?

European WAL test language is getting a little looser finds Dealscribe
The latest quarter has seen some loosening of WAL test laguage for European CLOs, according to document analysts Dealscribe

IACPM survey finds credit PMs still gloomy, but less so than last quarter
Respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey are still negative about future credit conditions, but less so than in previous surveys

Global Loan Highlights 1Q24: Don’t call it a comeback
Loan refinancing share hits historic high, but IG issuance stymies YoY global growth

Deutsche Bank and PSL launch index for European CLOs
Deutsche Bank has launched a total-return benchmark index for euro-denominated CLO debt.

Barclays raises 2024 US BSL CLO new issue forecast
Barclays has become the latest bank research desk to increase its 2024 US BSL CLO new issue forecast

How many CLOs will be reset?
Tightening liability spreads aren’t just driving record new CLO issuance this year — they’re also triggering a wave of resets and refinancings in the US, especially for broadly syndicated CLOs

European CLO equity distributions keep getting better, US keep getting worse
The latest distributions for post-reinvestment US CLOs show the impact of rapid prepayment rates, but post-reinvestment European CLOs are bucking that trend and seem to be improving with age.

Fresh wave of CLO calls looms as US equity distributions drop
Equity distributions for US CLOs outside their reinvestment period continue to fall as prepayments cut into cashflows

European CLO primary spreads still have a long way to go
Are European CLO spreads in the primary market cheap or expensive? Our latest research shows that while US managers can celebrate AAAs reaching the 150s, in Europe spreads still have a long way to go to reach historical norms.

DebtDynamics EMEA: Size matters
Direct lending margins widen on small deals, with an enlarging gap to other deals in the latest DebtDynamics EMEA research 

Credit PMs remain gloomy in latest IACPM survey
Survey participants in the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey believe the euphoria seen in global financial markets during the last few months of 2023 was overdone