Individuals account for nearly a quarter of private credit investor base – Alternative Credit Council
The global private credit market grew to around USD 3.5tn in assets at the end of 2024, according to a new report from the Alternative Credit Council and Houlihan Lokey 

North American and European credit defaults to fall next year – S&P Global
Global credit default rates will remain contained next year with North American defaults falling to around 4% 

CLO issuance projected to hit new records in 2026 – KBRA
The ratings agency projects USD 220bn in issuance across US BSL CLOs and private credit CLOs as well as five to six European private credit CLOs next year

Record gross supply but meagre risk/reward ratio for CLOs next year, says JPMorgan in 2026 outlook
The bank is forecasting a new record gross supply figure of half a trillion dollars next year for the US CLO market, but that headline figure belies the ‘recycled’ nature of much of the supply, with new origination expected to decline by around 20%

Evolving M&A is transforming the capital formation landscape – KKR
'Critical' link between M&A and credit is set to fuel growth in private markets

Private debt market fundraising shows shift to Europe – Goldman Sachs
Private credit market fundraising has been pivoting to Europe, while global defaults remain below historical averages, according to new research from Goldman Sachs

Default expectations rise as tariff threats to North America deepen – IACPM survey
Credit portfolio managers across the world see tariff-related headwinds for both the US and Canada

US CLO spreads to widen as uncertainty and tariffs bite – JPMorgan
Higher US tariff levels may lead to CLO spreads widening and pressure US CLO market growth, but new origination has been more resilient than expected, according to JPMorgan analysts in their mid-year CLO outlook report

Expanding investor base and ABL will propel private credit growth says BlackRock
The private credit asset class will continue to grow in 2025 as the underlying investor base diversifies and the definition of private credit expands to include asset-backed finance held by private lenders

Banks predict record-breaking year ahead
Consensus figures generated from outlook reports by five banks suggest 2025 will be another strong year for CLO issuance. But last year, their estimates were well below the actual numbers

Slow and steady wins the day
It’s often thought CLO managers add value to their deals via high volume trading strategies. The data shows this can be true — but on average, top performing CLOs are less actively traded

BNP Paribas sees credit upside in 2025, even amidst Trump-led unpredictability
The bank also sees CLO equity outperforming in 2025 benefiting from resilient loan fundamentals, strong cash flows, and the upside potential from reset activity

Moody’s forecasts robust economic performance underpinning continued strength in CLOs
The ratings agency’s outlook for 2025 is upbeat about the prospects for both the US and European CLO markets, helped by declining leveraged loan defaults

Triple C assets and capital preservation
In the US and Europe, better performing CLOs tend to hold fewer triple C assets. But even so, a third of top performing CLOs in the US have more than 6% of their assets in the triple C bucket.

JP Morgan revises CLO spread target upwards as recession fears mount
Off the back of renewed recession fears JP Morgan has revised its end-of-year AAA CLO spread target upwards to 150bps for both the US and Europe

IACPM survey finds credit PMs still gloomy, but less so than last quarter
Respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey are still negative about future credit conditions, but less so than in previous surveys

Global Loan Highlights 1Q24: Don’t call it a comeback
Loan refinancing share hits historic high, but IG issuance stymies YoY global growth

Barclays raises 2024 US BSL CLO new issue forecast
Barclays has become the latest bank research desk to increase its 2024 US BSL CLO new issue forecast

How many CLOs will be reset?
Tightening liability spreads aren’t just driving record new CLO issuance this year — they’re also triggering a wave of resets and refinancings in the US, especially for broadly syndicated CLOs

European CLO equity distributions keep getting better, US keep getting worse
The latest distributions for post-reinvestment US CLOs show the impact of rapid prepayment rates, but post-reinvestment European CLOs are bucking that trend and seem to be improving with age.

Fresh wave of CLO calls looms as US equity distributions drop
Equity distributions for US CLOs outside their reinvestment period continue to fall as prepayments cut into cashflows

European CLO primary spreads still have a long way to go
Are European CLO spreads in the primary market cheap or expensive? Our latest research shows that while US managers can celebrate AAAs reaching the 150s, in Europe spreads still have a long way to go to reach historical norms.

Credit PMs remain gloomy in latest IACPM survey
Survey participants in the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey believe the euphoria seen in global financial markets during the last few months of 2023 was overdone

New research says that CLO arb is better than you think, but still not good enough
New research by Barclays’ Powell Eddins and Pranava Boyidapu suggests that CLO arbitrage is in a better place than many investors think, but that BBs are still more attractive

Is direct lending on the rebound? - Debtwire Special Report
After a slow start in 2023, direct lending in both the US and Europe has been on the rise, with volumes in Q3 almost doubling compared to the previous quarter