North American and European credit defaults to fall next year – S&P Global
Global credit default rates will remain contained next year with North American defaults falling to around 4% 

CLO issuance projected to hit new records in 2026 – KBRA
The ratings agency projects USD 220bn in issuance across US BSL CLOs and private credit CLOs as well as five to six European private credit CLOs next year

Record gross supply but meagre risk/reward ratio for CLOs next year, says JPMorgan in 2026 outlook
The bank is forecasting a new record gross supply figure of half a trillion dollars next year for the US CLO market, but that headline figure belies the ‘recycled’ nature of much of the supply, with new origination expected to decline by around 20%

Private debt market fundraising shows shift to Europe – Goldman Sachs
Private credit market fundraising has been pivoting to Europe, while global defaults remain below historical averages, according to new research from Goldman Sachs

US CLO spreads to widen as uncertainty and tariffs bite – JPMorgan
Higher US tariff levels may lead to CLO spreads widening and pressure US CLO market growth, but new origination has been more resilient than expected, according to JPMorgan analysts in their mid-year CLO outlook report

Moody’s forecasts robust economic performance underpinning continued strength in CLOs
The ratings agency’s outlook for 2025 is upbeat about the prospects for both the US and European CLO markets, helped by declining leveraged loan defaults

JP Morgan revises CLO spread target upwards as recession fears mount
Off the back of renewed recession fears JP Morgan has revised its end-of-year AAA CLO spread target upwards to 150bps for both the US and Europe

Barclays raises 2024 US BSL CLO new issue forecast
Barclays has become the latest bank research desk to increase its 2024 US BSL CLO new issue forecast

European CLO equity distributions keep getting better, US keep getting worse
The latest distributions for post-reinvestment US CLOs show the impact of rapid prepayment rates, but post-reinvestment European CLOs are bucking that trend and seem to be improving with age.

Fresh wave of CLO calls looms as US equity distributions drop
Equity distributions for US CLOs outside their reinvestment period continue to fall as prepayments cut into cashflows

European CLO primary spreads still have a long way to go
Are European CLO spreads in the primary market cheap or expensive? Our latest research shows that while US managers can celebrate AAAs reaching the 150s, in Europe spreads still have a long way to go to reach historical norms.

New research says that CLO arb is better than you think, but still not good enough
New research by Barclays’ Powell Eddins and Pranava Boyidapu suggests that CLO arbitrage is in a better place than many investors think, but that BBs are still more attractive

34% of CLOs rated by Fitch out of reinvestment
34% of the CLOs rated by Fitch Ratings have left their reinvestment periods including six deals that exited in May, the rating agency said in a note to clients on Thursday

Euro CLOs have better 2023 entry point than US in $140 billion issuance year: Barclays
CLO performance and issuance may have to wait until the second half of next year for improvement, say Barclays credit strategists in a 2023 outlook piece. But Europe could fare better than the US given starting levels in a year the market faces some challenging regulatory hurdles

Private equity firms are becoming CLO converts: TwentyFour
Private equity firms have increasingly bought CLO and other securitised debt tranches in recent weeks instead of their usual preference for physical assets - a trade TwentyFour believes "makes perfect sense"

Sofr away from me – basis puts new CLO triple As in dire straits
A relative value gap has opened between secondary and primary market CLO triple A tranches, with the former looking attractive as volatility heightens and the basis grows between Libor and Sofr. This presents an additional problem for managers hoping to do new business

Widening asset/liability gulf will hurt CLOs: Barclays
A mismatch between CLO asset / liability rate risk is increasing in the US as more leveraged loan issuers opt for one-month pay frequency, Barclays credit strategists have found

Short duration CLOs are putting reset risk in the post: Barclays
The CLO market’s recent trend of shorter duration issuance could be setting up a problem for managers down the line that will impact their equity returns, Barclays has warned

Euro double As and US triple As offer best value in CLOs: BNP Paribas
Secondary market double A rated tranches offer the best relative value in European CLOs’ capital structures, while US triple As in primary starting to look attractive, according to BNP Paribas credit strategists

CLO spreads are not pricing in recession: JP Morgan
CLOs are priced fairly for a growth slowdown but not a recession, according to JP Morgan credit strategists, who warn spreads are at risk if US growth contracts

Manager selection stakes are heightening as CLO pain points intensify: Barclays
CLOs’ slump in market value and piling of distressed assets have made differentiation between managers much more acute on key metrics, regionally and by vintage, according to Barclays credit strategists

CLO investors show more signs of optimism than other ABS: Barclays
CLO investors attending the Global ABS conference in Barcelona were more upbeat than those that work in residential mortgage-backed securities and other ABS, say Barclays securitised credit strategists. But the overall mood was sombre

CLO top stack offers best value versus corp debt after junior tranche rally: Barclays
Having lagged in the recent market recovery, CLO triple A paper looks attractive versus corporate investment grade and the CDX IG credit derivatives index

CLOs look attractive after corporate rally - but not all tranches: Barclays
Rallying corporate cash credit spreads over the past two weeks have widened the basis with CLOs and made these products look attractive again, according to Barclays strategists

Hidden loan tail risks and mounting single B exposure could pose problem for CLOs: Barclays
A solid rally for leveraged loans this week - against returning weakness in bonds - has put focus back on the market, which seemingly has little tail risk priced in. But short term support factors and a dwindling triple C bucket mask the quality skew, warn Barclays strategists in a note today - which could spell downgrades for single-B minus rated loans