Hidden loan tail risks and mounting single B exposure could pose problem for CLOs: Barclays
A solid rally for leveraged loans this week - against returning weakness in bonds - has put focus back on the market, which seemingly has little tail risk priced in. But short term support factors and a dwindling triple C bucket mask the quality skew, warn Barclays strategists in a note today - which could spell downgrades for single-B minus rated loans

Russia returns to default pricing as railway co awaits credit event vote
Russian credit spreads are once again under intense pressure and sanctions-related credit events are back under the spotlight as the country's state-owned railway company faces the scrutiny of the Emea Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee

Russian Railways posed to DC as failure-to-pay credit event
Russian Railways has been posed as a failure-to-pay credit event, following a filing about its debt on the Swiss Stock Exchange on Friday

Logan Group contracts require physical settlement, DC rules
Logan Group will not require an auction to settle CDS contracts despite having triggered a failure-to-pay credit event, the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee has ruled

Chinese property co defaults stack up with second credit event trigger in two months
Logan Group has triggered a failure to pay credit event, the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee has ruled, in its second such decision on a Chinese property developer in as many months

Russia extends rally as DC rules against repudiation / moratorium
Russian Federation CDS contracts rallied strongly for a second day on Thursday, after the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee ruled a repudiation / moratorium had not occurred on the country's sovereign debt

DC accepts request to rule on Russian repudiation / moratorium
The Russian Federation is subject to credit event scrutiny over warnings it could repay foreign bond investors in rubles, with the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee agreeing to rule on a 'potential repudiation / moratorium' question

Russia debt repudiation / moratorium question lands with Determinations Committee
The Russian Federation looks to be edging closer towards triggering a credit event, having been referred to the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee for a 'potential repudiation / moratorium' on its bonds

Russia CDS won't be orphaned in credit event but could pay big, say investors
Contrary to a flurry of recent media reports, Russian Federation CDS contracts are highly likely to have deliverable bonds in the event the country triggers a credit event - and this could come soon with high pay outs for protection holders

Yuzhou has no use for CDS auction despite triggering contracts: DC
Yuzhou Group will not require an auction to settle CDS contracts despite having triggered a failure-to-pay credit event, the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee has ruled

Asian property co default in crosshairs as DC agrees to rule on failure-to-pay
Yuzhou Group is under consideration as a default trigger for CDS contracts, after the Asia Ex-Japan Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee agreed to rule on failure-to-pay question

Aoyuan CDS needs physical settlement as credit event fails auction liquidity rule
Holders of CDS referencing China Aoyuan will have to physically settle contracts, the Determinations Committee has confirmed, given a lack of depth to markets for the entity

A fresh approach to loss distribution
Considering how cash balances change over time, loss distribution models can look very different to conventional thinking. So is your CLO’s pricing based on incorrect assumptions?  

Fitch cuts US leveraged loan default rate projection
US leveraged loan default rate is anticipated to be just 1.5% by year-end 2022, according to a new report from Fitch Ratings. That’s down from the rating agencies’ original 2.5%-3.5% projection

Fitch lowers US loan default rates for 2021 and 2022
The rating agency has $200.9 billion of ‘market concern loans’ on its radar, saying these have declined in volume for the 12^th month straight but are still up 16% from pre-pandemic.

S&P lowers default rate forecast for US loan index
S&P Global Ratings has revised down its leveraged loan default rate forecast for the end of the year, based on the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index, from 3.5% to 2.75%

Beneath the triple C: resurfacing credits surpass divers as tide turns for CLOs
Upgrades above triple C overtook downgrades to that rating or below in February. Moody's or Standard & Poor's cut six corporate debt issuers to triple C or below in February, out of which just four can be found in CLO portfolios

US private credit default rate drops to 3.6% in Q4: Proskauer
US private credit default rates dropped to 3.6% in the fourth quarter, according to law firm Prokskauer’s Private Credit Default Index

Europcar CDS auction shocks protection buyers with zero pay-out
Wednesay's auction to settle Europcar Mobility Group CDS has left protection buyers on the company with nothing to show for their investments and hedges, after dealers produced an unexpected 100% recovery on contracts due to a technical mismatch in bids and orders

Europcar sets course for high recovery in 2021's first credit event auction
An auction to settle CDS referencing Europcar Mobility Group has generated an initial market midpoint of 73.5 cents, implying the pay-out to protection buyers could be only 26.5 cents - much lower than five-year CDS contracts had implied

Europcar CDS auction to include loan deliverables following challenge
An auction tomorrow to settle CDS contracts referencing Europcar Mobility Group will include a term loan facility agreement as a deliverable obligation, following a challenge to the initial list

Europcar auction faces challenge with tight turnaround
The Emea Determinations Committee has little time to settle a challenge on Europcar Mobility Group deliverable obligations if an auction to settle CDS contracts referencing the defaulted French vehicle hire firm is to take place on time this week

Europcar CDS auction date set
The Emea Determinations Committee has set a date in January to settle CDS referencing Europcar Mobility Group

Europcar triggers first credit event in Crossover series 34
Europcar Mobility Group has triggered a failure to pay credit event, the Emea Determinations Committee has ruled