Credit Rendezvous: heading for homes
Fund managers in structured credit, real assets and distressed are bullish on the prospects for residential housing in 2021. Elsewhere, niche royalty-based strategies are in favour and although a CLO repricing wave is expected, it may not be easy to execute resets. For more, read our 13-page quarterly report on credit. 

Convexity pushes high yield bond basis to the forefront
Compression had become the watchword of the market as Creditflux went to press, providing justification for high yield versus investment grade macro plays, wide-end long positioning and selective tight-end shorts. But the more important driver, say some relative value investors, was convexity

Zombies demand brain work from tranche traders
Outperformance of junior tranches and underperformance of senior was the big theme in CDS index tranches going into December. But the picture began to change as Creditflux went to press

Little room to move in IG’s vice-like grip
The absolute tightness of credit has left investment grade specialists a tough challenge to find value in the coming year, with neither scope for spread improvement nor encouragement to go short

Compression plays out as HY and European CLO double Bs outperform
Investment grade and high yield credit spreads have tightened in sync with each other this week, but CDS and CLOs alike underline that the big theme over the past month has been compression between investment grade and high yield

IG and crossover indices converge while European CLO double Bs rally
iTraxx Crossover is again outperforming Main today with the investment grade index widening 0.11bp to 52.56bp while the crossover index is 2.42bp tighter to 296.99bp. Meanwhile bank research signals that junior CLO tranches could benefit as investors look at covid industries through a different lense 

Credit rally rolls on as indices approach one-month tights
CDS indices are approaching their mid-October tights as reality seeps in of a divided US government and, consequently, little chance of dramatic corporate tax increases. Yesterday, iTraxx Main led the way, tightening 5.3%, followed by CDX NA HY and CDX IG (both 4.5%) and iTraxx Crossover (2.8%)

US credit shakes off early jitters as CDX IG tightens 6.9%
Credit spreads have reversed course yet again to join the rally in equities today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.5% today and credit is following with investment grade indices leading the way

Indices retrace wider as contested election scenario looms
Credit is moving wider this morning as a contested US presidential election looms. This comes as incumbent Donald Trump threatened to go to the US Supreme Court in the early hours of this morning, citing election fraud and calling to stop votes being counted

Single names join rally as positive skews persist in Europe
Single name CDS has joined the rally with European credit moving tighter this morning to continue the momentum from Monday. iTraxx Main is trading 2.1 basis tighter at 61.1bp today, according to IHS Markit, having shed 1.9bp yesterday. Similarly, iTraxx Crossover at 348.2bp has tightened 9.7bp today after tightening 9.1bp yesterday

European credit takes lockdown restrictions in its stride as indices tighten
European credit spreads have held firm this morning despite the re-emergence of lockdown measures with the UK government announcing on Saturday that new restrictions will come into play on 5 November

Credit spreads wind back to February to bring shorts into focus
The credit rally since April has opened up an opportunity to go short credit, say fund managers, with spreads back to where they were in late February

Investors get creative with new ways to trade the curve
Credit index curve trading is gaining new features going into August, evidencing deeper liquidity for CDS strategies, but also that investors already have one eye on the upcoming September rolls.

Rampant technicals push cash and CDS in different directions
Central bank interventions, primary market issuance and high yield defaults have conspired to create major distortions in credit performance, which sources say are ripe for opportunistic trading.

‘Hoard credit’ says PM as markets swing
As Creditflux went to press, the covid-19 death toll in Italy surged by 700 after two days of slowing, and the US congress agreed a $2 trillion stimulus package.

Tranche traders aim to navigate default risk while staying clear of coronavirus contagion
The CDS market is navigating between two sources of risk for equity and mezzanine high yield index tranches. The default of US media company McClatchy has focused idiosyncratic concerns, while the spread of the coronavirus has stoked fears of a systemic sell-off.

IHS Markit mulls CDX EM growth and iTraxx ESG screen
Increasing the portfolio size of CDX EM and consulting on an ethically-screened version of iTraxx Europe are among the projects index administrator IHS Markit has been working on ahead of the 20 March roll.

Covid-19 outbreak rattles carry traders
The coronavirus panic hitting financials markets at the end of February has been a strong driver of relative value trades, with CDS underperforming both cash bonds and equity, while financial names felt the heat more than corporate borrowers as geographical risk came into play.

EIB buys mezzanine tranche in Commerzbank SRT
Commerzbank has launched a €1.5 billion significant risk transfer with the European Investment Bank (EIB) announcing that it has invested in the mezzanine tranche of the securitisation

Correlation rise stokes mezz rally but adds to CSO woes
Below the calm surface of the credit market, correlation has been churning and creating dislocations rich with reward for index tranche traders but complicating bespoke issuance, say sources.

Falling correlation reignites passion for index tranche trades
Dispersion in the global corporate credit market is rekindling interest in correlation trading, with dealer sources reporting that a late surge lifted 2019 index tranche volumes to $250 billion.

Rising idiosyncratic risk leads to calls for high yield index tranche fix from traders
As sources of funding dry up for the weakest borrowers in the credit market, some correlation traders are calling for an overhaul of CDX NA HY index tranches to make trades on wide-end dispersion more effective.

Index tranche levels spike as investors advance into equity
Trading of credit index tranches is picking up, with some $61 billion worth changing hands in the space during the first quarter, according to data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation

Bespoke gains pull CLO buyers as market tipped to hit $100bn
Synthetic bespoke issuance could catch up with the more visible CLO market this year, say structured credit specialists

Spanish bank prices €972 million SRT with triple As paying 31bp
Cajamar Caja Rural, based in southern Spain, has priced a €972.1 million significant risk transfer (SRT), according to market sources