Barclays raises 2024 US BSL CLO new issue forecast
Barclays has become the latest bank research desk to increase its 2024 US BSL CLO new issue forecast

New research says that CLO arb is better than you think, but still not good enough
New research by Barclays’ Powell Eddins and Pranava Boyidapu suggests that CLO arbitrage is in a better place than many investors think, but that BBs are still more attractive

CLO round-up: secondary market rallies amid increased primary supply
CLO primary activity increased across the board this week, with US new issue supply amounting to $1.8 billion - up 48.7% on the week prior - while in Europe supply increased 208.8% to €1.2 billion

Barclays won't let sleeping dogs lie after another Newfoundland CLO reset
Newfoundland CLO, the long running and world's largest balance-sheet CLO, has been given a new leash of life by upsizing in a reset yesterday, according to announcements from Moody’s and Scope Ratings.

CLO 2023 Outlook: CLOs look set to rise to the challenge of a tough 2023
CLO researchers had an (understandable) inability to accurately predict the staggering array of macro shocks that affected the CLO market this year. So it comes as a surprise that overall CLO issuance reached a lot closer to anticipated levels than many would have expected back in Q2

Major fund withdrawals undermine credit momentum
Credit funds are extending their run of inflows into the end of the year, but investment grade momentum took a dent last week due to investors in one big fund pulling their money

Euro CLOs have better 2023 entry point than US in $140 billion issuance year: Barclays
CLO performance and issuance may have to wait until the second half of next year for improvement, say Barclays credit strategists in a 2023 outlook piece. But Europe could fare better than the US given starting levels in a year the market faces some challenging regulatory hurdles

Outsized corporate rally puts financials RV in focus
The week is ending with resumption of credit’s recent rally after a brief pause, and Europe once again taking the lead over the US

European outperformance creates index options trading mismatch: Barclays
The recent outperformance of European credit over US has shifted the value of iTraxx index options, but CDX index volatility premiums stand out for having hit a new low

High yield markets win big in 2022’s love-letter to CDS
Tradeable credit assets have suffered a rough year for liquidity and returns, but credit derivatives are among a small group of products defiantly enjoying a bumper year. 

Credit funds at a glance (November 2022)
A round up of fundraising and people moves in credit

Sofr away from me – basis puts new CLO triple As in dire straits
A relative value gap has opened between secondary and primary market CLO triple A tranches, with the former looking attractive as volatility heightens and the basis grows between Libor and Sofr. This presents an additional problem for managers hoping to do new business

Credit funds at a glance (October 2022)
A round up of fundraising and people moves in credit
 

   

European IG CLO mezz is attractive versus US paper: Barclays
There is no reason for European CLO mezzanine tranches to be as wide as they are versus equivalent US paper, according to a strategy note from Barclays.

Widening asset/liability gulf will hurt CLOs: Barclays
A mismatch between CLO asset / liability rate risk is increasing in the US as more leveraged loan issuers opt for one-month pay frequency, Barclays credit strategists have found

Rising stars, decompression and trade unwinds set to drive September roll: Barclays
Decompression and US / Europe relative value trade unwinds look set to characterise the September CDS index roll, with the prospect of no changes to iTraxx Europe for the first time in recent memory, say Barclays credit strategists

Short duration CLOs are putting reset risk in the post: Barclays
The CLO market’s recent trend of shorter duration issuance could be setting up a problem for managers down the line that will impact their equity returns, Barclays has warned

Italian rout gathers pace as credit relationships warp well beyond historical norms
Renewed selling pressure on Thursday has taken credit spreads back towards the year’s wides, with financial borrowers underperforming as Chinese covid cases, US inflation and a drought in Italy all weigh on sentiment

IG payers provide best tail-risk hedges: Barclays
Investors seeking the cheapest tail risk hedge should look to CDX IG payers, while iTraxx Europe payers are the best hedge against further European underperformance, finds Barclays

Euro loans with FX hedging offer better value than US: Barclays
The big underperformance of European loans in June has left them looking cheap versus those in the US – but FX hedging and a nuanced selection process are advisable for investors looking to take advantage of that

Manager selection stakes are heightening as CLO pain points intensify: Barclays
CLOs’ slump in market value and piling of distressed assets have made differentiation between managers much more acute on key metrics, regionally and by vintage, according to Barclays credit strategists

CLO investors show more signs of optimism than other ABS: Barclays
CLO investors attending the Global ABS conference in Barcelona were more upbeat than those that work in residential mortgage-backed securities and other ABS, say Barclays securitised credit strategists. But the overall mood was sombre

Euro IG credit looks set to outperform US, HY and equities: Barclays
An outlook of elevated inflation and low growth favours credit over equities, and euro investment grade over high yield, according to European credit strategists at Barclays

Market jitters mount as US delivers May CPI
Credit spreads have moved sharply wider for the fourth day straight as investors digested the European Central Bank’s hawkish turn and watched with trepidation for the US to reveal its May consumer price index numbers

CLO top stack offers best value versus corp debt after junior tranche rally: Barclays
Having lagged in the recent market recovery, CLO triple A paper looks attractive versus corporate investment grade and the CDX IG credit derivatives index