Credit Rendezvous: And breathe...
The unanimous verdict is that credit spreads will be moving wider – they have to. But the difficulty credit fund managers face is predicting when the next sell-off comes and how sharp it will be. In the Q3 instalment of Creditflux’s Credit Rendezvous, the over-riding message from portfolio managers is that there’s little point in taking on too much risk. The report features the views of prominent credit figures including Paul Horvath (Orchard), Himani Trivedi (Nuveen), Ronnie Jaber (Onex), Graham Rainbow (Alcentra) and Michelle Russell-Dowe (Schroders). The report looks at 14 segments of the market including CLOs, direct lending, leveraged loans, distressed debt and credit derivatives.  

US loan managers capture secondary opportunities as new issues struggle
US loan managers switched gears by sourcing loans in the secondary market in the second quarter. This came as pricing in the primary market became less attractive in the early part of Q2 and with new loan issuance slowing in May and June

Credit grind pushes back volatility bets
With recent weeks having all-but crushed volatility from the market, uncertainty about the timing of future risk triggers is leading credit options traders to spurn traditional horizons to focus on longer-dated expiries

Credit slumbers in departure lounge as airline equities take off
Credit and equity markets have been in a balancing act on Tuesday between the positive and negative implications of surging oil prices and Germany opting to relax travel restrictions

Triple Bs in the firing line as Fed turns hawkish, says BofA
Triple B and long duration credit are likely to be casualties of tightening central bank policy, Bank of America strategists have warned. But high yield and cyclical investment grade sectors could fare better

Credit grind makes it five days out of five in bullish week
Credit markets are heading into the weekend on a fifth straight day of improving spreads, amid signs of returning economic confidence and appetite to invest in the asset class

Financials and high yield outperform as rally gathers momentum
Credit spreads are enjoying a second day of improvement to regain some of the ground they lost last week, with Italian banks, commodity traders and higher yielding borrowers among outperformers in a broad rally of both indices and single name borrowers

ESG factors show up in leveraged loan pricing in US
Environmental, social, and corporate governance factors are filtering through to the US CLO market and influencing loan prices

Single names make big gains as indices dither
Single name CDS in the US and Europe have strongly outperformed from the start of the week, rallying sharply and across most of the credit universe despite direcctionless trading for indices

Corp hybrid popularity mounts, but strategist outlooks diverge
Corporate hybrid bonds are becoming a focal point for investors in the second quarter, with one bank's credit strategy team making them a top pick to trade spread compression while another's has expressed caution on their likely performance

Spreads rally sharply ahead of US high yield index roll
Credit markets are rallying into the weekend, pushing US high yield index CDX HY inside a key trading level ahead of its roll to a new series on Monday

TRS goes electronic on Tradeweb with iBoxx trade
Tradeweb Markets has completed what it says is the first ever fully standardised total return swap trade based on IHS Markit’s iBoxx US Dollar Liquid High Grade index

US and Europe diverge as loan trading bands emerge on the continent
Europe and the US are on different courses with credit indices having drifted apart over the past month, say trading sources. Europe is expected to suffer fewer defaults to the extent that "it’s getting quite difficult for borrowers to default”, as one source put it. But the US has "higher growth potential due to its more dynamic economy"

Fair Oaks tops up on double B CLO tranches in May
Fair Oaks topped up on double B-rated CLO tranches in its listed CLO fund in May, adding $79 million par value of BB-rated paper

Denominator effect expected to drive LP-led private debt secondaries
Institutional investors are expected to engage in rebalancing trades to counter the 'denonimator effect', a move that should lead to an increase in private debt secondary trades

Structured credit dragged very wide — but CLOs stand to gain
Senior tranches of securitisations widened 220% in less than a month as the coronavirus pandemic has meant an increase in systemic risk — a sharp turnaround from the past few months when idiosyncratic risks were being cited as the main concern for structured credit investors.

‘Hoard credit’ says PM as markets swing
As Creditflux went to press, the covid-19 death toll in Italy surged by 700 after two days of slowing, and the US congress agreed a $2 trillion stimulus package.

CDS show the way as prices move and volumes surge
CDS volumes provide an eye-opening view of how the asset class has grown in prominence during the coronavirus pandemic, with index trading near doubling year-to-date on 2019, even as secondary bond markets hit lockdown.

Managed accounts pose flexibility check for direct lenders
Direct lenders are closely analysing portfolio companies hit by coronavirus volatility for signs of financial stress, ready to inject capital and extend flexibility to companies where needed.

Fed unveils IG bond buying programme and direct lending plans
The US Federal Reserve has unveiled further measures to support the US economy alongside plans to establish a direct lending initiative - Main Street Business Lending Programme – to support lending to small-and-medium sized businesses

Tranche traders aim to navigate default risk while staying clear of coronavirus contagion
The CDS market is navigating between two sources of risk for equity and mezzanine high yield index tranches. The default of US media company McClatchy has focused idiosyncratic concerns, while the spread of the coronavirus has stoked fears of a systemic sell-off.

IHS Markit mulls CDX EM growth and iTraxx ESG screen
Increasing the portfolio size of CDX EM and consulting on an ethically-screened version of iTraxx Europe are among the projects index administrator IHS Markit has been working on ahead of the 20 March roll.

Covid-19 outbreak rattles carry traders
The coronavirus panic hitting financials markets at the end of February has been a strong driver of relative value trades, with CDS underperforming both cash bonds and equity, while financial names felt the heat more than corporate borrowers as geographical risk came into play.

US pension earmarks $25 million for secondary direct lending investment
Maine Public Employees Retirement System (MainePERS) is set to invest $25 million to a private credit fund through a secondary market transaction  

Correlation rise stokes mezz rally but adds to CSO woes
Below the calm surface of the credit market, correlation has been churning and creating dislocations rich with reward for index tranche traders but complicating bespoke issuance, say sources.