Sofr away from me – basis puts new CLO triple As in dire straits
A relative value gap has opened between secondary and primary market CLO triple A tranches, with the former looking attractive as volatility heightens and the basis grows between Libor and Sofr. This presents an additional problem for managers hoping to do new business

CLO portfolio metrics "hit an inflection point", says S&P
US CLO credit metricts "have hit an inflection point in recent months and started to turn towards the negative", according to new research from S&P Ratings

CLO inflows could hit $60 billion as knock on from student loan forgiveness, says BofA
US president Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness programme could lead up to $60 billion flowing into the CLO market, according to research from BofA

Three defaults mean CLO OC ratios to decline by 17bp in September, says BofA
CLO overcollateralisation ratios are set to decline by 17 basis points in September following the defaults of Cineworld, Endo and Carestream health, according to a research paper from Bank of America

Widening asset/liability gulf will hurt CLOs: Barclays
A mismatch between CLO asset / liability rate risk is increasing in the US as more leveraged loan issuers opt for one-month pay frequency, Barclays credit strategists have found

US banks' CLO holdings rose $10bn in Q2, but demand is set to drop: BofA
CLO holdings by US banks increased by around $10 billion over the second quarter this year. But BofA anticipates subdued demand for the rest of the year due to high loan growth, slowdown in deposit growth and increased capital requirements

US CLO triple C buckets will increase by up to 0.7% in August: BofA
US CLO triple-C baskets are expected to fill up by as much as 0.7% in August trustee reports, according to strategists at Bank of America, with the pace of triple C downgrades picking up in July to reverse an 18-month trend of stable or declining triple C concentrations

Short duration CLOs are putting reset risk in the post: Barclays
The CLO market’s recent trend of shorter duration issuance could be setting up a problem for managers down the line that will impact their equity returns, Barclays has warned

Euro double As and US triple As offer best value in CLOs: BNP Paribas
Secondary market double A rated tranches offer the best relative value in European CLOs’ capital structures, while US triple As in primary starting to look attractive, according to BNP Paribas credit strategists

CLO spreads are not pricing in recession: JP Morgan
CLOs are priced fairly for a growth slowdown but not a recession, according to JP Morgan credit strategists, who warn spreads are at risk if US growth contracts

Manager selection stakes are heightening as CLO pain points intensify: Barclays
CLOs’ slump in market value and piling of distressed assets have made differentiation between managers much more acute on key metrics, regionally and by vintage, according to Barclays credit strategists

CLO investors show more signs of optimism than other ABS: Barclays
CLO investors attending the Global ABS conference in Barcelona were more upbeat than those that work in residential mortgage-backed securities and other ABS, say Barclays securitised credit strategists. But the overall mood was sombre

CLO top stack offers best value versus corp debt after junior tranche rally: Barclays
Having lagged in the recent market recovery, CLO triple A paper looks attractive versus corporate investment grade and the CDX IG credit derivatives index

Think of the arb, say US CLO panelists after big loan drop
Far from being a cause for alarm, falling loan prices have brought a welcome opportunity in new CLO issuance for managers and investors, according to speakers at the Creditflux Symposium in London today

Macro woes have dented CLO and loan outlook: Barclays
Rising interest rates and elevated macro volatility have negatively impacted the performance outlook for both loans and CLOs, according to Barclays credit strategists

High yield / loan slowdown affects year-end projections and pricing: Barclays
A sharp decline in primary market activity means expectations for high yield bond and even leveraged loan issuance need to be lowered, say Barclays credit strategists. And that in turn has implications for relative value

CLOs look attractive after corporate rally - but not all tranches: Barclays
Rallying corporate cash credit spreads over the past two weeks have widened the basis with CLOs and made these products look attractive again, according to Barclays strategists

Hidden loan tail risks and mounting single B exposure could pose problem for CLOs: Barclays
A solid rally for leveraged loans this week - against returning weakness in bonds - has put focus back on the market, which seemingly has little tail risk priced in. But short term support factors and a dwindling triple C bucket mask the quality skew, warn Barclays strategists in a note today - which could spell downgrades for single-B minus rated loans

CLO equity returns to flatten while Sofr transition gains fresh impetus: BofA
CLO equity returns are forecasted to be relatively low in the first half of the year, and as this plays out there could be greater incentive for equity investors to push for a switch in CLO benchmark to Sofr.

CLO equity could get hurt by mismatch in credit spread adjustments: Barclays
The possibility that borrowers and sponsors start to use their clout to scrap credit spread adjustments from leveraged loans poses a risk for new CLO equity, while legacy deals also face transition challenges

CLO investor cash balances at lowest levels since 2009: JP Morgan research
A survey conducted by JP Morgan has suggested that CLO investors' cash balances are at their lowest levels since 2009 - but most managers want to add risk in the coming months 

CLO lower cap stack will outperform with $175bn new issuance in 2022: JP Morgan
Equity and lower rated tranche investors will do best as $175 billion of global new CLO issuance arrives in 2022, predict JP Morgan strategists in their annual outlook, taking market size to $1.2 trillion

Loans will be winners in bearish year for credit: BNP Paribas
Floating rate loans are best positioned for a year of widening credit spreads, but high yield bonds will outperform investment grade and EM credit is set for losses, says BNP Paribas in its 2022 outlook

CLO resets drive equity returns to highest in five years: JP Morgan
Equity investors in US CLOs are earning, on average, the biggest returns of the past five years, finds JP Morgan – with deals reset this year having done most to raise the numbers

Sofr transition timing puts CLO debt and equity at odds, says BNP Paribas
CLO investors look to have tough conversations ahead on the structure implications of the transition from Libor to Sofr, with BNP Paribas strategists noting CLO debt will benefit from an early move while equity tranches would do better to wait