Question your assumptions
Valuing CLO paper is complicated, and loan prepayments are one of the trickiest parts. When pricing a new issue CLO, the market generally assumes that 15-20% of loans will prepay their principal annually. This prepayment rate is important because it essentially determines the pace at which a CLO’s rated debt is paid off after the reinvestment period, when the CLO pays down its own principal.

More than 45% of Euro CLOs to be out of RP by Q1 2024, Fitch says
More than 45% of Fitch-rated reinvesting European CLOs are anticipated to be out of their reinvestment period by the end of Q1 2024, up from around a third as of April, which could lead to rating pressure for mezzanine tranches in those deals

Euro CLO exposure to financial sector 'limited', say Fitch
European CLO exposure to the financial sector is 'limited' and CLO ratings will not be impacted by UBS's acquisition of Credit Suisse, according to new data from Fitch Ratings

Loan trading within European CLOs drops to 0.6%: BofA
European CLO manager trading activity declined sharply this year amid less leveraged loan primary supply and declining secondary liquidity, according to Bank of America research

Five issuers account for 22% of Euro CLO triple Cs: BofA
22% of triple C-rated debt in European CLOs originates from just five issuers, according to analysis from Bank of America research this morning

European CLO equity outperforms single Bs amid high return dispersion: Bank of America
European CLO returns have been negative across the capital structure this year, a research paper from Bank of America has found. Losses have been softened however due to an increasing three-month Euribor rate, high carry relative to corporates and relatively stable equity returns.

Euro CLOs have better 2023 entry point than US in $140 billion issuance year: Barclays
CLO performance and issuance may have to wait until the second half of next year for improvement, say Barclays credit strategists in a 2023 outlook piece. But Europe could fare better than the US given starting levels in a year the market faces some challenging regulatory hurdles

Euro CLO new issuance could reach €22 billion in 2023, says BofA
European CLO new issuance will reach €22 billion in 2023, strategists at Bank of America expect, while refinancing / reset volume should reach €3 billion under a ‘base case’ scenario

Private equity firms are becoming CLO converts: TwentyFour
Private equity firms have increasingly bought CLO and other securitised debt tranches in recent weeks instead of their usual preference for physical assets - a trade TwentyFour believes "makes perfect sense"

Sofr away from me – basis puts new CLO triple As in dire straits
A relative value gap has opened between secondary and primary market CLO triple A tranches, with the former looking attractive as volatility heightens and the basis grows between Libor and Sofr. This presents an additional problem for managers hoping to do new business

Keep an eye on gaming, leisure and entertainment issuers in Euro CLOs, says BofA
CLO investors should be mindful of industry concentration exposure, with the gaming, leisure and entertainment sector an area of focus, according to Bank of America research released yesterday

Euro CLOs demonstrate "considerable resiliency" to upcoming CLO maturity wall, says S&P
Managers and investors should keep an eye on upcoming CLO maturity wall with “potential adverse effects” amid tighter financing conditions and the impact that could have on CLO performance and ratings

Euro CLO IG mezz tranches look attractive amid cap stack divergence: Barclays
European CLO IG mezzanine debt tranches are more attractive than triple As or double Bs, say strategists at Barclays, owing to greater dispersion and a lag in recovery.

Widening asset/liability gulf will hurt CLOs: Barclays
A mismatch between CLO asset / liability rate risk is increasing in the US as more leveraged loan issuers opt for one-month pay frequency, Barclays credit strategists have found

Short duration CLOs are putting reset risk in the post: Barclays
The CLO market’s recent trend of shorter duration issuance could be setting up a problem for managers down the line that will impact their equity returns, Barclays has warned

Euro double As and US triple As offer best value in CLOs: BNP Paribas
Secondary market double A rated tranches offer the best relative value in European CLOs’ capital structures, while US triple As in primary starting to look attractive, according to BNP Paribas credit strategists

CLO spreads are not pricing in recession: JP Morgan
CLOs are priced fairly for a growth slowdown but not a recession, according to JP Morgan credit strategists, who warn spreads are at risk if US growth contracts

Manager selection stakes are heightening as CLO pain points intensify: Barclays
CLOs’ slump in market value and piling of distressed assets have made differentiation between managers much more acute on key metrics, regionally and by vintage, according to Barclays credit strategists

CLO investors show more signs of optimism than other ABS: Barclays
CLO investors attending the Global ABS conference in Barcelona were more upbeat than those that work in residential mortgage-backed securities and other ABS, say Barclays securitised credit strategists. But the overall mood was sombre

CLO top stack offers best value versus corp debt after junior tranche rally: Barclays
Having lagged in the recent market recovery, CLO triple A paper looks attractive versus corporate investment grade and the CDX IG credit derivatives index

BofA revises Euro CLO new issuance forecasts downwards
Bank of America CLO strategists have cut their base case forecasts for European CLO volume in 2022 to €22.6 billion for new issues and €10 billion for refi/resets, citing slower economic growth and higher tail risks. But further market disruption could take new issuance down to €16.5 billion, they warned

High yield / loan slowdown affects year-end projections and pricing: Barclays
A sharp decline in primary market activity means expectations for high yield bond and even leveraged loan issuance need to be lowered, say Barclays credit strategists. And that in turn has implications for relative value

CLOs look attractive after corporate rally - but not all tranches: Barclays
Rallying corporate cash credit spreads over the past two weeks have widened the basis with CLOs and made these products look attractive again, according to Barclays strategists

Hidden loan tail risks and mounting single B exposure could pose problem for CLOs: Barclays
A solid rally for leveraged loans this week - against returning weakness in bonds - has put focus back on the market, which seemingly has little tail risk priced in. But short term support factors and a dwindling triple C bucket mask the quality skew, warn Barclays strategists in a note today - which could spell downgrades for single-B minus rated loans

European CLOs well-placed to counter volatility: Fitch
High inflation could hamper borrowers, but European CLOs are in decent shape with most loan issuers having refinanced last year, according to a report by Fitch Ratings. Other parts of structured credit are not as well insulated against risks.