Static deals stand out in Europe
European CLO equity in redeemed deals has delivered excellent returns. But managers might be surprised to discover that static deals are the region’s stars

European CLOs see jump in triple-C exposure, says Fitch
European CLOs have seen their exposure to assets rated triple-C or below increase sharply, reaching an average of 5.0%

JP Morgan revises CLO spread target upwards as recession fears mount
Off the back of renewed recession fears JP Morgan has revised its end-of-year AAA CLO spread target upwards to 150bps for both the US and Europe

European managers struggle to add alpha
Before the COVID pandemic, European CLOs comfortably outperformed the Morningstar European Euro-Denominated Loan Index. Since then, alpha has declined for many managers

Barclays sees record European CLOs for 2024
Barclays expects a record year for CLO deals in Europe, raising its issuance forecast to EUR 40-45bn in a report released this week

Do defaults predict equity returns?
At first glance, recently redeemed European CLOs show some sort of correlation between final IRR and the number of defaults in their portfolio. But what other factors affect performance?

European WAL test language is getting a little looser finds Dealscribe
The latest quarter has seen some loosening of WAL test laguage for European CLOs, according to document analysts Dealscribe

Deutsche Bank and PSL launch index for European CLOs
Deutsche Bank has launched a total-return benchmark index for euro-denominated CLO debt.

Barclays raises 2024 US BSL CLO new issue forecast
Barclays has become the latest bank research desk to increase its 2024 US BSL CLO new issue forecast

How many CLOs will be reset?
Tightening liability spreads aren’t just driving record new CLO issuance this year — they’re also triggering a wave of resets and refinancings in the US, especially for broadly syndicated CLOs

European CLO equity distributions keep getting better, US keep getting worse
The latest distributions for post-reinvestment US CLOs show the impact of rapid prepayment rates, but post-reinvestment European CLOs are bucking that trend and seem to be improving with age.

Fresh wave of CLO calls looms as US equity distributions drop
Equity distributions for US CLOs outside their reinvestment period continue to fall as prepayments cut into cashflows

European CLO primary spreads still have a long way to go
Are European CLO spreads in the primary market cheap or expensive? Our latest research shows that while US managers can celebrate AAAs reaching the 150s, in Europe spreads still have a long way to go to reach historical norms.

New research says that CLO arb is better than you think, but still not good enough
New research by Barclays’ Powell Eddins and Pranava Boyidapu suggests that CLO arbitrage is in a better place than many investors think, but that BBs are still more attractive

November 2023 European Leveraged Highlights
Debtwire today releases the November 2023 European Leveraged Highlights, containing key trends in the leveraged loan and high-yield bond markets

European CLOs win out against US deals
Last month, our analysis explored the performance of US CLOs that were previously reset. We found that they delivered higher distributions than deals which weren’t reset, with the exception of the 2017 and 2018 vintages (Creditflux September 2023 — Do resets help CLOs perform better?). This article expands that analysis to the European market, and compares the performance of US BSL and EU CLO equity tranches.

Question your assumptions
Valuing CLO paper is complicated, and loan prepayments are one of the trickiest parts. When pricing a new issue CLO, the market generally assumes that 15-20% of loans will prepay their principal annually. This prepayment rate is important because it essentially determines the pace at which a CLO’s rated debt is paid off after the reinvestment period, when the CLO pays down its own principal.

More than 45% of Euro CLOs to be out of RP by Q1 2024, Fitch says
More than 45% of Fitch-rated reinvesting European CLOs are anticipated to be out of their reinvestment period by the end of Q1 2024, up from around a third as of April, which could lead to rating pressure for mezzanine tranches in those deals

Euro CLO exposure to financial sector 'limited', say Fitch
European CLO exposure to the financial sector is 'limited' and CLO ratings will not be impacted by UBS's acquisition of Credit Suisse, according to new data from Fitch Ratings

Loan trading within European CLOs drops to 0.6%: BofA
European CLO manager trading activity declined sharply this year amid less leveraged loan primary supply and declining secondary liquidity, according to Bank of America research

Five issuers account for 22% of Euro CLO triple Cs: BofA
22% of triple C-rated debt in European CLOs originates from just five issuers, according to analysis from Bank of America research this morning

European CLO equity outperforms single Bs amid high return dispersion: Bank of America
European CLO returns have been negative across the capital structure this year, a research paper from Bank of America has found. Losses have been softened however due to an increasing three-month Euribor rate, high carry relative to corporates and relatively stable equity returns.

Euro CLOs have better 2023 entry point than US in $140 billion issuance year: Barclays
CLO performance and issuance may have to wait until the second half of next year for improvement, say Barclays credit strategists in a 2023 outlook piece. But Europe could fare better than the US given starting levels in a year the market faces some challenging regulatory hurdles

Euro CLO new issuance could reach €22 billion in 2023, says BofA
European CLO new issuance will reach €22 billion in 2023, strategists at Bank of America expect, while refinancing / reset volume should reach €3 billion under a ‘base case’ scenario

Private equity firms are becoming CLO converts: TwentyFour
Private equity firms have increasingly bought CLO and other securitised debt tranches in recent weeks instead of their usual preference for physical assets - a trade TwentyFour believes "makes perfect sense"