BNP Paribas sees credit upside in 2025, even amidst Trump-led unpredictability
The bank also sees CLO equity outperforming in 2025 benefiting from resilient loan fundamentals, strong cash flows, and the upside potential from reset activity

Moody’s forecasts robust economic performance underpinning continued strength in CLOs
The ratings agency’s outlook for 2025 is upbeat about the prospects for both the US and European CLO markets, helped by declining leveraged loan defaults

Deutsche Bank forecasts record new issuance for European CLOs in 2025
Deutsche Bank Research is forecasting a record EUR 50bn in gross new issue CLO supply for the European CLO market in 2025, with net issuance projected to increase to EUR 25bn

Triple C assets and capital preservation
In the US and Europe, better performing CLOs tend to hold fewer triple C assets. But even so, a third of top performing CLOs in the US have more than 6% of their assets in the triple C bucket.

Static deals stand out in Europe
European CLO equity in redeemed deals has delivered excellent returns. But managers might be surprised to discover that static deals are the region’s stars

European CLOs see jump in triple-C exposure, says Fitch
European CLOs have seen their exposure to assets rated triple-C or below increase sharply, reaching an average of 5.0%

JP Morgan revises CLO spread target upwards as recession fears mount
Off the back of renewed recession fears JP Morgan has revised its end-of-year AAA CLO spread target upwards to 150bps for both the US and Europe

European managers struggle to add alpha
Before the COVID pandemic, European CLOs comfortably outperformed the Morningstar European Euro-Denominated Loan Index. Since then, alpha has declined for many managers

Barclays sees record European CLOs for 2024
Barclays expects a record year for CLO deals in Europe, raising its issuance forecast to EUR 40-45bn in a report released this week

Do defaults predict equity returns?
At first glance, recently redeemed European CLOs show some sort of correlation between final IRR and the number of defaults in their portfolio. But what other factors affect performance?

European WAL test language is getting a little looser finds Dealscribe
The latest quarter has seen some loosening of WAL test laguage for European CLOs, according to document analysts Dealscribe

Deutsche Bank and PSL launch index for European CLOs
Deutsche Bank has launched a total-return benchmark index for euro-denominated CLO debt.

Barclays raises 2024 US BSL CLO new issue forecast
Barclays has become the latest bank research desk to increase its 2024 US BSL CLO new issue forecast

How many CLOs will be reset?
Tightening liability spreads aren’t just driving record new CLO issuance this year — they’re also triggering a wave of resets and refinancings in the US, especially for broadly syndicated CLOs

European CLO equity distributions keep getting better, US keep getting worse
The latest distributions for post-reinvestment US CLOs show the impact of rapid prepayment rates, but post-reinvestment European CLOs are bucking that trend and seem to be improving with age.

Fresh wave of CLO calls looms as US equity distributions drop
Equity distributions for US CLOs outside their reinvestment period continue to fall as prepayments cut into cashflows

European CLO primary spreads still have a long way to go
Are European CLO spreads in the primary market cheap or expensive? Our latest research shows that while US managers can celebrate AAAs reaching the 150s, in Europe spreads still have a long way to go to reach historical norms.

New research says that CLO arb is better than you think, but still not good enough
New research by Barclays’ Powell Eddins and Pranava Boyidapu suggests that CLO arbitrage is in a better place than many investors think, but that BBs are still more attractive

November 2023 European Leveraged Highlights
Debtwire today releases the November 2023 European Leveraged Highlights, containing key trends in the leveraged loan and high-yield bond markets

European CLOs win out against US deals
Last month, our analysis explored the performance of US CLOs that were previously reset. We found that they delivered higher distributions than deals which weren’t reset, with the exception of the 2017 and 2018 vintages (Creditflux September 2023 — Do resets help CLOs perform better?). This article expands that analysis to the European market, and compares the performance of US BSL and EU CLO equity tranches.

Question your assumptions
Valuing CLO paper is complicated, and loan prepayments are one of the trickiest parts. When pricing a new issue CLO, the market generally assumes that 15-20% of loans will prepay their principal annually. This prepayment rate is important because it essentially determines the pace at which a CLO’s rated debt is paid off after the reinvestment period, when the CLO pays down its own principal.

More than 45% of Euro CLOs to be out of RP by Q1 2024, Fitch says
More than 45% of Fitch-rated reinvesting European CLOs are anticipated to be out of their reinvestment period by the end of Q1 2024, up from around a third as of April, which could lead to rating pressure for mezzanine tranches in those deals

Euro CLO exposure to financial sector 'limited', say Fitch
European CLO exposure to the financial sector is 'limited' and CLO ratings will not be impacted by UBS's acquisition of Credit Suisse, according to new data from Fitch Ratings

Loan trading within European CLOs drops to 0.6%: BofA
European CLO manager trading activity declined sharply this year amid less leveraged loan primary supply and declining secondary liquidity, according to Bank of America research

Five issuers account for 22% of Euro CLO triple Cs: BofA
22% of triple C-rated debt in European CLOs originates from just five issuers, according to analysis from Bank of America research this morning