Three defaults mean CLO OC ratios to decline by 17bp in September, says BofA
CLO overcollateralisation ratios are set to decline by 17 basis points in September following the defaults of Cineworld, Endo and Carestream health, according to a research paper from Bank of America

Widening asset/liability gulf will hurt CLOs: Barclays
A mismatch between CLO asset / liability rate risk is increasing in the US as more leveraged loan issuers opt for one-month pay frequency, Barclays credit strategists have found

Short duration CLOs are putting reset risk in the post: Barclays
The CLO market’s recent trend of shorter duration issuance could be setting up a problem for managers down the line that will impact their equity returns, Barclays has warned

UBS says modelling suggests upcoming recession won’t bite
Likely global recession scenarios look mild according to strategists at UBS, who have run four models.

Euro loans with FX hedging offer better value than US: Barclays
The big underperformance of European loans in June has left them looking cheap versus those in the US – but FX hedging and a nuanced selection process are advisable for investors looking to take advantage of that

Manager selection stakes are heightening as CLO pain points intensify: Barclays
CLOs’ slump in market value and piling of distressed assets have made differentiation between managers much more acute on key metrics, regionally and by vintage, according to Barclays credit strategists

CLO investors show more signs of optimism than other ABS: Barclays
CLO investors attending the Global ABS conference in Barcelona were more upbeat than those that work in residential mortgage-backed securities and other ABS, say Barclays securitised credit strategists. But the overall mood was sombre

Think of the arb, say US CLO panelists after big loan drop
Far from being a cause for alarm, falling loan prices have brought a welcome opportunity in new CLO issuance for managers and investors, according to speakers at the Creditflux Symposium in London today

Macro woes have dented CLO and loan outlook: Barclays
Rising interest rates and elevated macro volatility have negatively impacted the performance outlook for both loans and CLOs, according to Barclays credit strategists

High yield / loan slowdown affects year-end projections and pricing: Barclays
A sharp decline in primary market activity means expectations for high yield bond and even leveraged loan issuance need to be lowered, say Barclays credit strategists. And that in turn has implications for relative value

CLOs look attractive after corporate rally - but not all tranches: Barclays
Rallying corporate cash credit spreads over the past two weeks have widened the basis with CLOs and made these products look attractive again, according to Barclays strategists

Hidden loan tail risks and mounting single B exposure could pose problem for CLOs: Barclays
A solid rally for leveraged loans this week - against returning weakness in bonds - has put focus back on the market, which seemingly has little tail risk priced in. But short term support factors and a dwindling triple C bucket mask the quality skew, warn Barclays strategists in a note today - which could spell downgrades for single-B minus rated loans

CLO equity could get hurt by mismatch in credit spread adjustments: Barclays
The possibility that borrowers and sponsors start to use their clout to scrap credit spread adjustments from leveraged loans poses a risk for new CLO equity, while legacy deals also face transition challenges

CLO lower cap stack will outperform with $175bn new issuance in 2022: JP Morgan
Equity and lower rated tranche investors will do best as $175 billion of global new CLO issuance arrives in 2022, predict JP Morgan strategists in their annual outlook, taking market size to $1.2 trillion

Loans will be winners in bearish year for credit: BNP Paribas
Floating rate loans are best positioned for a year of widening credit spreads, but high yield bonds will outperform investment grade and EM credit is set for losses, says BNP Paribas in its 2022 outlook

CLO resets drive equity returns to highest in five years: JP Morgan
Equity investors in US CLOs are earning, on average, the biggest returns of the past five years, finds JP Morgan – with deals reset this year having done most to raise the numbers

Sofr transition timing puts CLO debt and equity at odds, says BNP Paribas
CLO investors look to have tough conversations ahead on the structure implications of the transition from Libor to Sofr, with BNP Paribas strategists noting CLO debt will benefit from an early move while equity tranches would do better to wait

There's still time to pick up pennies in credit before steamroller arrives: BNP Paribas
Declining dealer inventories, rising fund cash balances, and a greater prevalence of hedging have added up to produce a credit market that is positioned too short, according to BNP Paribas strategists

Lingering covid vies with inflation as top credit threat, finds BofA
Covid-19 lingering is catching up with inflation as credit investors' number one worry, Bank of America's August survey has found. The picture for central bank purchases is bullish, but strategists see industrial and bank senior bonds as shorts for contrarians over the summer

CLO demand to drive loan outperformance over bonds: BNP Paribas
The buying power of CLOs and funds could mean leveraged loans rally further and outpace high yield bonds, says BNP Paribas' credit research team

ESG drive poses little threat to CLO returns or flexibility, says Moody's
Environmental, social and governance investment criteria are not impairing CLOs either in flexibility or performance, Moody's Investors Service has found in a new report

CLO investors still hungry for triple As and double Bs, says JP Morgan
Most CLO investors are looking to add risk through deals in the months ahead, with very few inclined to reduce exposure, a JP Morgan survey has found - despite the historic flood of issuance in the first quarter of this year

Loan market delivers best one-day returns since April due to US election and vaccine
The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index recorded its best single day returns since April on Monday as investors celebrated in a string of positive developments that sent markets into overdrive

Size matters: exposure to small loan facilities worse than covid industries, says BofA
CLO managers that hold a higher portion of smaller sized facility loans in their portfolios have performed worse through the pandemic, according to a Bank of America research paper

Governance has greatest impact on short-term changes in company valuation out of ESG factors, finds MSCI
Governance has more impact than environmental and social factors on company financial fundamentals and stock price in the short term, but ‘E’ and ‘S’ play their part over the long term, according to analysis from MSCI