ECB acts on inflation but gas and other worries grow worse
If European Central Bank officials breathed a sigh of relief when their first hike in 11 years did not immediately rattle markets — or even dared believe a more hawkish signal helped confidence — the reprieve was short-lived

UBS says modelling suggests upcoming recession won’t bite
Likely global recession scenarios look mild according to strategists at UBS, who have run four models.

Green negative basis trades open up after GM issues bonds
There is an attractive entry point for ESG-minded credit investors to put on green negative basis trades, according to a research paper by Anthropocene    

Relief rally extends despite US and EU sending mixed signals on recession
Growth and inflation data on Friday has added impetus for the European Central Bank to maintain a hawkish stance at its September meeting, despite US signals suggesting that economy is in recession

Italian rout gathers pace as credit relationships warp well beyond historical norms
Renewed selling pressure on Thursday has taken credit spreads back towards the year’s wides, with financial borrowers underperforming as Chinese covid cases, US inflation and a drought in Italy all weigh on sentiment

IG payers provide best tail-risk hedges: Barclays
Investors seeking the cheapest tail risk hedge should look to CDX IG payers, while iTraxx Europe payers are the best hedge against further European underperformance, finds Barclays

Go long duration in consumers and industrials: BofA
The year’s wides still lie ahead in the second half, but China reopening is bullish for consumer and industrial spreads and investors should extend duration in high-quality credit, according to Bank of America strategists

Euro loans with FX hedging offer better value than US: Barclays
The big underperformance of European loans in June has left them looking cheap versus those in the US – but FX hedging and a nuanced selection process are advisable for investors looking to take advantage of that

EU inflation prints frame challenge ahead as horror show first half ends
Financial markets are heading into the weekend with a rare stationary session, but the mood is more one of shellshock than considered positioning, after one of the worst first halves to a year on record

Credit lacks 'good answer' on what could cap spread widening: JP Morgan
Without any clear candidates to put a lid on spread widening, investment grade and high yield credit markets look set to extend much wider than current levels, warn JP Morgan strategists

Europe trades heavier than US as market baulks at new hikes
Credit spreads have resumed their push wider, with European indices once again under more pressure than their US counterparts

Credit rout eases as ECB holds emergency meeting ahead of Fed rates decision
Credit markets are undergoing a relief rally, even as the US Federal Reserve prepares to deliver its moment of truth decision on policy tightening and the European Central Bank holds an emergency meeting to address the recent sell-off in risk assets

Euro IG credit looks set to outperform US, HY and equities: Barclays
An outlook of elevated inflation and low growth favours credit over equities, and euro investment grade over high yield, according to European credit strategists at Barclays

Market jitters mount as US delivers May CPI
Credit spreads have moved sharply wider for the fourth day straight as investors digested the European Central Bank’s hawkish turn and watched with trepidation for the US to reveal its May consumer price index numbers

Russia oil ban accord unites markets in sell off
EU leaders’ compromise agreement on banning Russian oil imports by sea has presented a united front few may have thought possible only days ago. But financial markets have not reacted positively, with risk assets selling off as the euro slumps and oil hits its highest level since March

Fund outflows extend despite sharp improvement in credit performance
This has been a much better week for credit and equity market performance than last, but that has not stopped the tide of investors looking to withdraw their money from funds for such risk assets

Bespoke bond baskets on the rise as investors seek targeted portfolio trades
High yield index replication and accessing illiquid exposure are two factors building momentum for a new investment approach that bundles bonds into a single risk piece

Credit fund bleed out looks hard to stem, as hawks ignore macro gloom
Ever more investors are running to safety as risk assets tally up another rough week, with strategists warning there is no end in sight for credit fund outflows while central banks hold their course on rate hikes

Credit retreats from wides, but worrisome test levels remain in view
Another rocky week for markets is ending with credit finding a firmer tone. But big questions remain unanswered about relative value and the levels some sectors could test

Post-Fed volatility prompts stark reassessment of credit relative value
Central bank policy moves have caught markets off-guard, with volatility ensuing and spreads hitting new wides 

German real estate co troubles mount on short-seller response and earnings no-show
Friday is proving a bad day to end a bad week in a bad year for Germany's Adler Group, with debt risk measures hitting new levels as short-seller Viceroy responds to the firm's recent investigation by KPMG and the market rumour mill goes up a gear

High yield / loan slowdown affects year-end projections and pricing: Barclays
A sharp decline in primary market activity means expectations for high yield bond and even leveraged loan issuance need to be lowered, say Barclays credit strategists. And that in turn has implications for relative value

Volatility has teed up decompression trades: Barclays
Recent credit market turbulence has brought relative value trading opportunities between cash bonds and CDS, credit and equity as well as between investment grade and high yield, particularly in Europe

Credit awash with volatility in first week but investors load up
It has been a volatile opening week to the year for credit, but one in which investors have allocated bullishly to credit funds

Euro bonds set to outperform US despite big fund outflows: BofA
The November credit crash has left Euro investment grade bonds wider than those in the US, a rare occurrence that sets the scene for a January rally, say Bank of America credit strategists