Robots rise for credit ratings
A fintech platform is launching this month that aims to use artificial intelligence to democratise credit ratings.

High yield outperformance to bring compression trade back into play: Citi
High yield underperformance versus investment grade is expected to reverse following the US presidential election, according to a strategy note from Citi. The bank’s strategists have been advocating compression trades since July and feel that there is more room for this to run citing election trends, exposure to coronavirus credits, expected default rates and credit ratings

Go long index mezz tranches to pick up spread: Citi
Citi research has outlined some of the opportunities that have arisen in the index tranche market as a result of elevated correlation

Green credit advocate launches research body
Stockholm-based portfolio manager and green credit advocate Ulf Erlandsson has today announced the launch of research body Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute (AFII)

Governance has greatest impact on short-term changes in company valuation out of ESG factors, finds MSCI
Governance has more impact than environmental and social factors on company financial fundamentals and stock price in the short term, but ‘E’ and ‘S’ play their part over the long term, according to analysis from MSCI

Autos dominate in BofA €25 billion fallen angel watchlist
Downgrade impact for fallen angels in the coming months could be more extreme than during the 2008 financial crisis, Bank of America strategists have warned, as they identified €25 billion worth of debt at European investment grade companies most at risk of falling into high yield territory

Sovereign borrowing will crowd out corps and produce fallen angels, warns BofA
Investors should be wary of buying coporate credit that yields less than sovereign debt, Bank of America strategists have warned, predicting €20-30 billion of European fallen angel volume lies ahead as the market cycle turns

Hedge against coronavirus, says JP Morgan, naming 40 most exposed credits
With novel coronavirus cases rising at what looks to be an exponential rate, JP Morgan strategists have proposed a high yield hedge to address the rising threat to European credit spreads and listed 40 borrowers they think are most exposed to impact

Investors increasingly see ESG as fiduciary duty, State Street survey reveals
North American investors are most likely to view ESG as a fiduciary duty, while European investors are driven by regulation, performance and reputational risk, according to results from a survey conducted by State Street Global Advisors

Boeing/Airbus dogfight widens spreads as WTO ruling exposes Europe's trade weaknesses
The World Trade Organisation’s go-ahead for the US to impose $7.5 billion of tariffs on imports from the EU has sent credit spreads sharply wider. And, according to latest credit research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, it exposes Europe’s “Achilles heel”

Political risk puts December in focus as CDS investors play index volatility
Selling implied volatility has been prominent among CDS investors since last month’s iTraxx and CDX index rolls, says BNP Paribas in a research piece, with December a popular point of focus for trades

Go long CLO triple-A and pick cash bonds over CDS, says JP Morgan
Going long European CLO triple A paper remains one of JP Morgan strategists’ favourite trades following the European Central Bank stimulus announcement last week, despite these tranches having rallied 14bp on average since the bank first backed them. They also predict cash credit to outperform CDS

Four sectors most favoured by bullish resumption of QE, say BAML strategists
Autos, healthcare, media and real estate bonds are likely to be the biggest initial beneficiaries if the European Central Bank reinvigorates its corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) next week, say Bank of America Merrill Lynch credit strategists

Buy iTraxx Europe equity tranche risk but sell Crossover mezz, says JP Morgan
Investors should stick with ‘search for yield’ ideas in investment grade credit, say JP Morgan credit strategists, including selling iTraxx Europe 0-3% equity tranches delta hedged, going long the 10-year Europe index, and selling credit volatility through index options while buying equity market volatility

Index tranches and Sub Fin basket among top picks after ECB meeting, says JP Morgan
The European Central Bank’s statement that rate cuts will likely be paired with tiered deposit rates suggests a boost for the iTraxx Sub Financials index, as well as tier two and additional tier one bank bonds, says JP Morgan in latest credit research. The bank also advocates selling iTraxx Europe 0-3% tranches delta hedged

Triple B fightback has begun, says BNP Paribas
Fallen angel risk – the possibility that a wave of triple B credits could be cut by rating agencies to sub-investment grade – should begin to decline, according to strategists at BNP Paribas

Credit pickers will win as high yield spreads widen in 2019, predicts Citi
After a volatile 2018 in the credit derivatives market, there are reasons to be optimistic this year for the best credit pickers, according to Citi’s global credit derivatives outlook