Political risk puts December in focus as CDS investors play index volatility
Selling implied volatility has been prominent among CDS investors since last month’s iTraxx and CDX index rolls, says BNP Paribas in a research piece, with December a popular point of focus for trades

18% of CLO managers priced their first deals post-January 2018, says Maples
Launching a new CLO management platform is ‘extremely difficult’ although the rewards appear to be worth the risks, according to new research from Maples Group

Go long CLO triple-A and pick cash bonds over CDS, says JP Morgan
Going long European CLO triple A paper remains one of JP Morgan strategists’ favourite trades following the European Central Bank stimulus announcement last week, despite these tranches having rallied 14bp on average since the bank first backed them. They also predict cash credit to outperform CDS

Four sectors most favoured by bullish resumption of QE, say BAML strategists
Autos, healthcare, media and real estate bonds are likely to be the biggest initial beneficiaries if the European Central Bank reinvigorates its corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) next week, say Bank of America Merrill Lynch credit strategists

Buy iTraxx Europe equity tranche risk but sell Crossover mezz, says JP Morgan
Investors should stick with ‘search for yield’ ideas in investment grade credit, say JP Morgan credit strategists, including selling iTraxx Europe 0-3% equity tranches delta hedged, going long the 10-year Europe index, and selling credit volatility through index options while buying equity market volatility

Index tranches and Sub Fin basket among top picks after ECB meeting, says JP Morgan
The European Central Bank’s statement that rate cuts will likely be paired with tiered deposit rates suggests a boost for the iTraxx Sub Financials index, as well as tier two and additional tier one bank bonds, says JP Morgan in latest credit research. The bank also advocates selling iTraxx Europe 0-3% tranches delta hedged

Another 2008 would leave IG CLOs without losses but default rates will climb, says BofE
CLOs will see greater losses in a downturn than they did in the last financial crisis, according to the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report

Direct lending challenges in 2019: competition, lack of quality assets and high transaction multiples
Results from Proskauer Rose's survey show these are not putting off 75% of respondents, who are fundraising for a debt fund

Triple B fightback has begun, says BNP Paribas
Fallen angel risk – the possibility that a wave of triple B credits could be cut by rating agencies to sub-investment grade – should begin to decline, according to strategists at BNP Paribas

Fourth quarter CLO equity volatility is taste of things to come, says BAML research
CLO equity performance in the fourth quarter of 2018 gave an example of how mark-to-market returns could erase carry returns for investors, Bank of America Merrill Lynch says in its latest research piece

CLO equity a "top trade" for 2019, but beware ratings risk, says JP Morgan
CLO equity is one of the top trades of 2019, according to research analysts at JP Morgan in a research paper published on Friday, noting that the asset class offers ‘sticky capital in a volatile cycle'

Credit pickers will win as high yield spreads widen in 2019, predicts Citi
After a volatile 2018 in the credit derivatives market, there are reasons to be optimistic this year for the best credit pickers, according to Citi’s global credit derivatives outlook

CLO issuance will temper as market remains in 'exploratory mode', notes BAML research
Following a bout of volatility in the loan market, CLO issuance will be tempered as debt and equity investors rediscover correct pricing levels, according to a new research paper published this week by Bank of America Merrill Lynch

CLO spread tightening more likely than widening in Q1, says Wells Fargo research
CLO spreads are more likely to move tighter than wider in quarter 1 2019, despite the widening trend accelerating through December, according to Wells Fargo analysts

Direct lenders pile into "turbocharged" market as fundraising skyrockets: report
Growth in the direct lending market in the 12 months to 31 December was “turbocharged,” growing robustly in the fourth quarter 2017 in particular due to a consistently growing Eurozone economy, according to Deloitte

Euro SME CLO market to remain at low issuance levels, DBRS predicts
A new report by credit rating agency DBRS says the European securitisation market has much to be positive about in 2018 – but warns that the SME CLO market is expected to remain at low issuance levels 

US mid-market earnings grow 12.8% in Q4 2017, up from 4.9% in Q3
Earnings in the US middle market grew by 12.8% in fourth quarter 2017, while overall revenue grew by 11.5% during September and October 2017, according to a Golub report

Citi finds that triple A investors should look at short-dated CLO resets over refis
Citi's credit research team has put together a report assessing how US CLO triple A tranches are pricing relative to their inherent refinancing risk.

European direct lending up 34% in recent quarter: Deloitte report
Direct lending in Europe continues to boom, according to the latest Deloitte deal tracker, which found a 34% growth of direct lending deals in third quarter 2017 alone compared to third quarter 2016

Private debt performance shines in institutional investing study
A quarter of institutional investors say private debt outperformed their expectations over 12 months to 28 August 2017

Managers plan to lower fees after holding steady for two years, survey finds
More than one-fifth of US-based investment managers said they planned to lower their fees in 2017, according to the Callan Institute’s 2017 Investment Management Fee Survey

Citi models likelihood of CLO refis over resets
Control CLO investors are often faced with a dilemma - should we refi or reset? New research has modelled which outcome is more likely

CLOs dodged recent loan defaults, according to Wells Fargo
CLO exposure to three recent US loan defaults has been minimal, according to Wells Fargo research