Credit PMs predict global recession
Respondents to the latest IACPM credit outlook survey were feeling particularly gloomy, with a strong majority predicting recessions in both the US and Europe next year

Loan Highlights 3Q23: Loan volumes remain significantly lower than historical averages
Capital markets loan activity continued to struggle in the third quarter of 2023, as issuers in the Americas and Europe held off from tapping markets

Despite CLO gloom in Europe and greater take up of private credit in the US, markets on both sides of the Atlantic are similar
I’ve just returned from a trip to London, my first since taking on the mantle of editing Creditflux, and was struck as always by how stubbornly far apart the European and the US markets remain.

What do you think?
The Creditflux CLO Census is back for its seventh instalment. Our annual stock-take of the global CLO industry begins on Monday, 2 October — it’s your chance to make your voice heard

Fed members need to restore their credibility, which could translate into excessive tightening
Rising wages have boosted spending and GDP — but the party can’t last forever

Creditflux announces date for 2024 CLO Symposium & Manager Awards
Our flagship CLO Symposium & Manager Awards will be returning on Wednesday 15 May 2024, and will once again be held at the Landmark Hotel in London

New IACPM survey points to a global recession
Respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey overwhelmingly expect global economies to fall into recession either later this year or sometime in 2024.

Loan Highlights 2Q23: Running aground
The global loan market endured a bleak first half of the year, with the overall 1H23 volume falling 28% year-on-year (YoY) to $1.9 trillion, the lowest showing since 2012.

LP round up: securitised credit mandate terminated amid $5 billion allocations and expanding relationships
Institutional investors revealed nearly $5 billion of allocations to 31 credit managers across January and February board meetings, according to materials seen by Creditflux. However, there were also two fixed income manager terminations, and one multi-strategy account placed on a watchlist

Not every CLO can be a winner
The CLO industry has undeniably performed well enough to justify the plaudits it receives. But there will always be some unloved CLO tranches that slip into triple C territory

Credit Suisse slumps in bleak Monday, but high yield name sharply bucks trend
Financial markets are beginning the week on an uncertain footing, with anti-covid lockdown protests in China hitting commodity prices hard. But one European high yield company has bucked credit’s widening push with a massive rally

We can cope with downgrades again

Russia auction prep on pause after last minute scramble
The Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee has put on pause its preparation for a credit event auction to settle Russian Federation CDS, amid reports the country has made good on sovereign debt payments right at the wire

Heavy mood greets Europe’s return as earnings and rates policy weigh
The European market on its return after the long weekend is greeted with another sizeable push wider in spreads, with focus on US Federal reserve policy, this week’s round of corporate earnings and the prospect of US 10-year inflation linked bond yields turning positive for the first time in two years

Russia extends rally as DC rules against repudiation / moratorium
Russian Federation CDS contracts rallied strongly for a second day on Thursday, after the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee ruled a repudiation / moratorium had not occurred on the country's sovereign debt

Chemical co beats widening blues as earnings and inflation drive sell-off
Ineos Group leads a small group of tightening credits that are bucking widening pressure in what is turning out to be a negative end to a choppy week

Credit rally extends as Fed hurdle passes and Evergrande views evolve
Credit markets are rallying for a second day, after the US Federal Reserve meeting indicated a shortening timeline to rate hikes but no shocks. A key deadline for China Evergrande bond payments still overshadows the Thursday session, but investor expectations have gravitated to a more localised impact for any fall out

Alcentra co-CIO for liquid credit set to leave this month
A high profile figure in the US CLO business is leaving Alcentra

Europcar bonds hit full throttle on restructuring agreement
Europcar bonds are among the best performing in a flattish market today, after the French vehicle hire firm obtained an agreement with its main creditors on a financial restructuring

WTW to tackle lack of diversity across investment industry
Progress on diversity across the investment industry is “disappointingly slow”, according to research from Willis Towers Watson

Selecta splashes CLOs with bankruptcy credit event
Selecta Group has triggered a bankruptcy credit event, the Emea Determinations Committee has ruled

Tranche traders smell the coffee as Crossover default percolates
Selecta Group looks set to become the third European credit event in as many months to hit series 33 of the iTraxx Crossover index and tranches based on series 32

Ensco CDS leap wider on credit event trigger
CDS contracts referencing Ensco International, a Houston based subsidiary of offshore driller Valaris, have shot wider after the Americas Determinations Committee ruled the company has triggered a bankruptcy credit event

Valaris and Ensco posed to DC as bankruptcy credit events
Valaris and its subsidiary Ensco International Incorporated have been proposed to the Americas Determinations Committee as bankruptcy credit events after the group filed for chapter 11 protection in August

Europcar hits bumps on the road less travelled
A rough road for Europcar this week has taken its bond and CDS spreads back towards the outer reaches, setting the French car rental firm apart from a general improvement in fortunes for names at the wider end of the market