Fears about rates and the economy have dwindled and the outlook is positive
Bond yields are rising but capital markets remain full speed ahead

ESG initiatives should avoid unfavourable reactions by pursuing substance over form
By any financial measure, the collaboration of trans activist Dylan Mulvaney with Bud Light hurt the brand. What was formerly America’s best-selling beer saw its market share collapse — from over 35% in May 2023 to around 9% in June — because of a boycott by US conservatives after a 60-second TikTok video aired of Mulvaney drinking it.

Fed members need to restore their credibility, which could translate into excessive tightening
Rising wages have boosted spending and GDP — but the party can’t last forever

"Dispersion should manifest in potential fallen angel credits that are likely to proliferate"
IG and crossover names present a compelling alternative to shorting HY credit  

"All that remains is to thank all of you who have kept faith with my monthly confessions of insanity"
With the economic outlook now beyond a joke, Welshcake signs off amid denials he is actually a Welsh footballer  

“Pension fund managers should look to take advantage of a rare opportunity in corporate CDS”
The October sell-off in gilts highlights a glaring lack of exposure to CDS

"This ‘higher rates for longer’ saga is more like the 1920-21 depression than the 1970s high inflation era"
Sometimes you have to swallow your medicine and take a step back to go forwards

"Forget the World Cup, the macro-economic catastrophe cup has more well-matched contenders"
Government bonds are rallying in some quarters, but the odds are on more stress feeding into credit  

"If earnings weaken, equity and credit markets could enter a new phase in the sell-off"
High yield has outperformed equities since the sell-off this year, but that relationship could change

"The shutdown of economies in the pandemic showed it’s better to suffer up front"
Rather than prolong the agony, central banks would be better off bunching their planned rate hikes into one    

Points up front: Making a meal of the arb
Credit market participants are always looking at the best arbitrage opportunity and right now that seems to be at McDonald’s

We’ll get through this awkward patch
Wide liabilities have made pricing CLOs trickier in the past few months. But speakers at Creditflux’s CLO Symposium were optimistic that the arbitrage is OK — so long as you can place those triple As

"It’ll take something special to drag my attention away from Depp/Heard, but Jerome Powell could just do it"
It’s not easy letting go of the past, but May heralds the start of something new in credit

"Derivative longs versus cash corporate shorts looks attractive, especially if we see a market sell-off"
Technicals are keeping cash credit spreads tight, but as central banks reduce purchases there will be relative value opportunities

Points up front: "It’s all me, me, me"
A study last month by the University of Marburg found that narcissistic fund managers are up to 34% more likely to deviate from their advertised investment style, and they tend to underperform non-narcissists.

"Faltering oil supply is lamentable at a time of strategic and moral shortfall"
We need to accept the pain and cut dependence on Russian oil today

"Strong growth is not necessary for good loan or bond performance, but it keeps a recession at bay"
The picture in credit was looking good (even with inflation rising) until Russia invaded Ukraine

They said it: "The third term is Jinping’s legacy..."
... He does not care about near-term growth."

"If omicron paradoxically lowers the temperature of the market, that may be no bad thing"
The global economy is well protected against omicron — and a mild infection may be beneficial

"Growth in credit products lets investors express sector-specific views as dispersion ticks higher"
Investors can use ETFs, volatility dispersion swaps or even bond baskets to trade dispersion

Points up front: Definitely not an ex-parrot
One of the biggest credit fund launches last month was Arini, led by star credit trader Hamza Lemssouguer  

"If ESG funds only talk the talk, it is because investors, legislators and regulators don’t walk the walk"
Whatever an ESG fund means to you, it probably means something different to the next investor

Everyone’s ramping