US spreads reconverge on Europe as traders hold breath for ECB
Credit markets are finely poised ahead of today’s meeting of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt today, with some positivity around US-China tariff talks allowing US spreads to gain ground as European expectation remains tempered by German recession fears

iTraxx and CDX roll provisional lists reveal effects of index overhauls
Eagerly awaited provisional lists are out for this month’s index CDS rolls, with big changes signalled across iTraxx and CDX products

CDS data snapshot: central bank positioning and index rolls drive flows
Welcome to the inaugural run of what will become a weekly insight into credit derivatives trading. Each week, Creditflux will highlight trends and dynamics from most recently available market data. We welcome feedback on measures of the market readers would like to see here in future

Credit traders' kickstand: Financials lead compression as pre-ECB and index roll bulldozers flatten spreads
Caution does not appear to be an operative word in financial markets ahead of next week’s key European Central Bank meeting, with financial names leading the way as credit spreads return to this year’s tightest levels and stocks ascend towards post-crisis peaks

Credit traders' kickstand: Europe ascendant as high yield pipeline returns
The high yield bond primary market grinds back into gear this week just as European credit reaches an extreme point of outperformance over the US, and comes on the back of Europe’s busiest week of investment grade issuance in 18 months

Credit traders’ kickstand: it’s a tough time to go short
Credit derivative indices are ending the week back at very tight levels, with a re-convergence of spreads, with little appetite to bet against presumed central bank dovishness or the upcoming CDS rolls in September

Credit traders' kickstand: Basis and CDS curves take focus with long wait ahead for central bank direction
With almost a month to wait before the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve hold their next decisive meetings, a bumpier and seemingly directionless road continues in credit markets as investors show little inclination to do anything more adventurous than just hold on tight

Credit traders' kickstand: volatility puts paid to primary, but pays out for relative value buyers
The persistence of credit market choppiness has brought into focus CDS/bond basis plays, options positioning, high yield dispersion and peripheral European weakness - but mainly the volatility rash has put a block on borrowers' primary market aspirations

Flat curves and decompression make waves below the surface
Hopes of using the summer slowdown to get to the beach may be tempered for credit relative value traders, where opportunities abound behind the uninspiring benchmark numbers of the slow market grind.

Net short language could force lenders to sell at a loss
Signs are growing that ‘net short’ provisions in bonds and loans are getting closer to hitting CDS investors, with two instances in recent weeks of the language expanding both in geographical and functional remit.

Back to basis (and skew) as relative value plays catch-up
Basis trades between bonds and CDS failed to gain traction during July as synthetic markets held ground or improved their position versus cash, but this is beginning to change, say market participants.

Credit traders' kickstand: tighter and tighter we go, as outlook gets 'worse and worse'
It’s a strange world, where the president of the European Central Bank can say the economic outlook is “getting worse and worse” as credit markets surge into new territories of tightness

Investor requirements rather than performance is driving ESG push: Creditflux survey
Only 14% of respondents to Creditflux's global credit ESG survey said performance was the main reason they were adopting envoronmental, social and governance-themed strategies

CDS has spillover effect on bond liquidity but could cause fire sales, finds BoE researcher
Single name CDS positioning is positive for the bonds of borrowers referenced by the contracts through a ‘liquidity spillover effect’, according to a new paper by a Bank of England research economist. But mark-to-market losses on CDS brought about by higher margining costs could lead to fire sales in the bond market, the paper adds.

Credit traders’ kickstand: curve flatteners and skew trades gain ground
Grinding tighter is the order of the day in credit markets – and indeed looks likely to be the order for much of next week, with an absence of obvious events and catalysts to dictate otherwise. But the strength of the rally in CDS indices has left ‘catch up’ opportunities for relative value traders in curve, basis and even skew based strategies, say market participants

Tranche trading is back: relative value plays power growth
Synthetic bespoke and index tranche markets are shifting through the gears and accelerating, say investors, as an increasing prevalence of relative value trading strategies evoke dreams of the products returning to pre-financial crisis glory.

Credit traders' kickstand: European financials outperform as Trump-Xi meeting looms
Credit markets are finely poised going into the weekend, when US president Donald Trump’s crunch G20 meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping likely could set the direction of trade from Monday

Credit traders' kickstand: synthetic credit leads the way as spreads swoop on dovish wings
Dovish comments by the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve, along with thin bond issuance, contributed to a pronounced rally this week in credit market. But a nervy week may lie ahead as suspense grows before G20 summit talks between the US and China next Friday and Saturday

Barclays rehires high yield credit trader from Goldman Sachs
A high yield specialist has become the second credit trader in as many months to rejoin Barclays from Goldman Sachs

US and European basis trades in play as bonds lag CDS rally
A recent outperformance of CDS indices versus cash bonds has opened up basis trade opportunities on both sides of the Atlantic, say credit strategists

CDX IG and iTraxx back to level pegging as oil and trade weigh heaviest
Credit markets, along with stocks, enter the week on a flattish tone with focus once again on the next developments between the US and China over trade tariffs. This follows European credit faring better than the US last week as the mood strengthened around Italian and UK risks, say strategists

Financials lead charge as dovish Fed stokes rally
Financial companies are some of the biggest movers in CDS amid a positive surge of credit and equities. This follows yesterday’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve and anticipates the European Central Bank pre-announcing on Thursday the terms of its lending plans for banks

Trump tariffs and oil slip dent Europe vs US credit decompression trades
Underperformance of US credit derivative indices at the end of last week has created a trading entry point for those still convinced that Europe has more problems. But bearish factors continue to coalesce on both sides of the Atlantic

Credit traders' kickstand: nervous equilibrium gives way to weakness as earnings and tariffs weigh
Healthy fund inflows, European and US holidays, and a thinning primary market helped sustain credit spreads this week, but a weaker turn today shows this is a fragile equilibrium and company earnings misses are starting to be punished more severely

Investors regain nerve to trade the curve
Post-crisis, CDS curve trading languished as an unloved strategy, due to illiquidity outside the five-year tenor. But dealers note resurgent demand for both 3-5 year and 5-10 year positioning, albeit with mixed results.