Smaller issuers default at more than twice the rate of their mid-sized peers – Fitch
Issuers with EBITDA below USD 25m saw a 9.3% default rate in the 12 months to the end of 2Q25

Rush to exit bankruptcy pushes more companies to file a second time
Four companies file for second time in 2025, up from one last year; Poor prognosis for Chapter 22 filers, with high liquidation rates  

Corporate default rates predicted to fall despite tariff uncertainty - S&P
Speculative-grade corporate default rates expected to fall on both sides of the Atlantic as trade tension uncertainty eases, but some concerns remain

Default expectations rise as tariff threats to North America deepen – IACPM survey
Credit portfolio managers across the world see tariff-related headwinds for both the US and Canada

Tariff pressures stir PIK fears in private credit
As the US economy flashes warning signs amid President Trump’s push for higher tariffs, any pain in the direct lending market will likely appear in the increased use of payment-in-kind interest, market participants say

Leveraged loan, HY defaults to pick up as tariff pause adds more uncertainty - Goldman
The bank expects macro challenges to continue despite the tariff pause  

Large cap deals generating higher percentage of private credit defaults, S&P says
Larger private debt deals were also more likely to include a payment-in-kind feature

Middle market private credit default climb significantly to 4.7% – Proskauer
The US direct lending market saw a big increase in middle market defaults in the fourth quarter of 2024

Global corporate defaults on fastest pace since 2009 according to S&P
The number of corporate defaults has risen dramatically year-to-date, according to S&P Global Ratings, driven by a doubling of the rate of defaults in Europe

Lumen Technologies ad-hoc group preps competing proposal
The refinancing of Lumen Technologies, currently held by 1311 different CLOs with a combined principal balance of USD 3.8bn, took a new twist today as details of a competing proposal emerged

Envision Healthcare draws lawsuit from fourth out lenders
A group of “fourth out” lenders to Envision Healthcare have lodged an adversary complaint over its 2022 drop-down recapitalization and subsequent ‘uptier’ exchange

Fitch notches up US lev loan and HY 2023 default rate forecasts
Fitch Ratings has raised its US corporate institutional high yield bond default 2023 forecasts from 3%-3.5% to 4.5%-5%, and its leveraged loan default forecast from 2.5%-3% to 4%-4.5%

US private credit default rate rose to 2.06% in Q4, Proskauer reveals
That’s up from 1.56% in Q3 and reverses the trend of declining default rates from the 8.1% peak in Q2 2020.

US private credit default rate rose to 1.56% in Q3, Proskauer index reveals
US private credit default rates rose from 1.18% to 1.56% in the third quarter, according to Proskauer’s private credit default index

Russia and Ukraine debt recovery outlooks diverge as DC publishes auction lists
The credit event auction to settle Russian sovereign CDS will have eight bonds deliverable, while 15 bonds have made it onto a preliminary list for Ukraine’s auction

Russia credit event auction starts to firm up as DC mulls settlement options
Russian Federation sovereign CDS will be settled in the first half of September, the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee has said. But settlement restrictions still require further discussion

Ukraine triggers restructuring credit event
Ukraine has triggered a restructuring credit event, the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee has ruled

Ukraine credit event question accepted by DC
The Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee has accepted a request to rule on whether Ukraine has triggered a restructuring credit event, following the country’s agreement last week to defer debt payments

Russian Federation auction list features eight bonds
The lengthening endeavour to organise a Russian Federation credit event auction has taken another step forward, with the publication of a preliminary list of deliverable obligations

Russia CDS auction deliverables list takes shape after sanctions licence
Russian Federation bonds cleared by Euroclear may be the only deliverable obligations to settle sovereign CDS contracts referencing the country, the Emea Determinations Committee has said, although it is also considering Clearstream listed bonds as it moves forward with preparations for a credit event auction

Russia CDS settlement receives boost from US sanctions update
The long wait to settle CDS contracts referencing the Russia Federation could soon be over, with previous uncertainty over how US sanctions would impact a credit event auction apparently having been addressed

Internet company triggers restructuring credit event at third time of asking
Yandex, the multinational internet and search engine company that predominantly serves Russian and Russian language users, has triggered a restructuring credit event

Russian credit event auction plans put on hold after US sanctions update
Settlement of Russian Federation sovereign CDS has hit a delay, with the US having published updated advice on sanctions that could jeopardise the ability to conduct a credit event auction

Talen bond squeeze brings low auction pay-out for protection holders
A credit event auction to settle Talen Energy Supply CDS has delivered a much higher result than had been predicted from bond prices, fuelled by a bidding squeeze on deliverable paper

DC explains Russian credit event ruling - but not sole member opposition
Factors backing Russian Federation’s credit event trigger have been outlined by the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee, but without giving any explanation for Citi’s decision to vote against the decision